West-East Geopolitical Rivalry in Cyberspace and Artificial Intelligence in the new era of Donald Trump

The Center for International Strategic Analyzes-KEDISA successfully organized an online event ( webinar ) on the subject: “The West-East Geopolitical Rivalry in the Field of Cyberspace and Artificial Intelligence (AI)” on Wednesday, November 20, 2024.

The coordinator of the online event was Dr. Panagiotis Sfaelos (Vice President of the Board & Director of Research KEDISA – Secretary General of the Greek Section of the Union of European Journalists). Speakers were: Mr. Eleftherios Athousakis , (Cyber Security Specialist), Dr. Eleni Kapsokoli , (Postdoctoral Researcher in Cybersecurity and Artificial Intelligence (AI) at the Department of International and European Studies, University of Piraeus), Dr. Andreas Liaropoulos , (Associate Professor of International and Strategic Studies at the Department of International and European Studies, University of Piraeus) and Mr. Andreas Sfakianakis (Cyber Security Analyst, Cyber Specialist Threat Intelligence ).

The Founder & Chairman of the Board of Directors KEDISA Dr. Andreas G. Banoutsos opened the event with his welcome and short introductory speech where he said that due to the recent developments with the election of Donald Trump to the US Presidency, it is imperative today more than ever that the EU seeks to emancipate itself from the US and in its field Cybersecurity and Artificial Intelligence. He also added that the EU in an environment of intense international competition should impose effective restrictions on the use of illegal tracking software such as the Predator and the Pegasus in order to protect both European Security from the action of foreign state and non-actors and the privacy and personal data of millions of European citizens.

The Cyber Security Specialist Mr. Eleftherios Athousakis emphasized that cyberspace and artificial intelligence are critical fields of geopolitical competition between East and West. Every day there are many attacks both from groups supported by some countries and from terrorist groups. Cyber-attacks and electronic espionage are known internationally as Advanced Persistent Threats ( APTs ). There are also supply chain attacks. Cyber attack groups operate in Iran, Russia, China and North Korea. Artificial intelligence is also used for military purposes, particularly aiming to create autonomous weapon systems and decision support systems. The use of artificial intelligence facilitates faster decision-making as well as the conduct of war operations with greater precision. The US and China are investing huge sums in the development of artificial intelligence in the military sector. The use of artificial intelligence also raises ethical questions in terms of accountability.

An example of the West-East competition in the field of cyberspace is the blocking of Huawei and Kaspersky by some Western countries highlighting the concern about the security and control of networks. There are also fiber optic cable cutting incidents that highlight the vulnerability of these critical infrastructures and the potential for sabotage or espionage. The concern also extends to Space with the control of satellite systems, something that is the subject of geopolitical competition. In cyber defense there is a gap right now and with artificial intelligence we are catching attacks in real time.

AI can also lead to misinformation and fake news. With the help of artificial intelligence some state and non-actors they also target political campaigns to mislead citizens. There is great difficulty in distinguishing true-false content. Fake news on the internet can lead to escalation of war conflicts. Artificial intelligence also raises legal issues as the legislator has to regulate a new and rapidly changing situation. The development of artificial intelligence also provides opportunities for international cooperation on common threats with new standards. There should be a positive use of artificial intelligence and cyber security in the military sector in particular to address the risks that will arise in the future.

H Postdoctoral Researcher in Cybersecurity and Artificial Intelligence at the Department of International and European Studies of the University of Piraeus, Dr. Eleni Kapsokoli first mentioned that artificial intelligence is not only a technological innovation that accompanies every aspect of our lives but is also a point of geopolitical competition between the Great Powers. The evolution of artificial intelligence is compared to previous technological revolutions. Artificial intelligence is expected to lead to increased productivity and the transformation of the global balance of power. Artificial intelligence is currently at the center of academic debates. Artificial intelligence is changing information management as well as electoral processes. Significant changes are also expected in health care, at military operations and information. Artificial intelligence will enhance cyber-attacks and organized disinformation operations, reduce decision-making time and largely replace the human factor in military operations such as with the use of drones something we already see being done on the battlefields. Large companies act as independent actors and control the computing power, data and human resources, key elements of artificial intelligence. Dominance in artificial intelligence is at the center of geopolitical competition mainly between the US and China. The US is investing in tech giants and research institutions dealing with artificial intelligence while China is investing in government initiatives in data availability.

The AI arms race also raises concerns as the issue is not who will prevail but what risks there are from the growing competition. For the US and China, technological superiority is more important than any danger to society. In the US, the Blueprint has been issued for an AI Bill of Rights signed by seven companies ( Amazon , Anthropotic , Google , Inflection , Meta , Microsoft and Open AI ). Chips​ and Science Act is considered one of the most important tools for artificial intelligence because it will help in the production of semiconductors of American origin. The US has an undisputed lead in computing power. Export restrictions from 2022 have prevented the transfer of critical semiconductor technology to other countries. China has invested in digital autonomy and infrastructure that has been a national strategic priority since 2017. In the period 2022 – 2023, 95 billion dollars were given to private investments, while the semiconductor fund has 45 billion dollars for autonomy in semiconductor hardware . Chinese companies have developed artificial intelligence applications . Japan is investing in artificial intelligence in the field of defense. The UK is one of the three largest AI markets. The UK leverages its Universities to boost AI research while France is one of the main AI hubs. The EU emphasizes responsible AI governance based on its democratic values. The EU is trying to become a global regulator in artificial intelligence and cyber security by influencing other states to adopt similar legislation as it happened with the European legislation for the protection of personal data ( GDPR ) which was extended to countries outside the EU.

The global race for supremacy in artificial intelligence is intense. The USA and China are leading but other countries are also trying to follow in this competition. Initiatives for the development of artificial intelligence are mainly taken at the national level while international initiatives are still at an early stage. The lack of international rules increases the need for more regulation of artificial intelligence and how it is used.

The Associate Professor of International and Strategic Studies in the Department of International and European Studies of the University of Piraeus Dr. Andreas Liaropoulos stated that state and non-state actors compete in the control of physical technology infrastructures, software, data and also humans as users of technology. As he said, there are two models cyberspace governance: 1) Multistakeholderism where cyberspace is controlled by state actors but also by private companies (USA, EU) and 2) Multilateralism , where only states are dominant actors (Russia and China). The US and China are leading the way in owning and controlling artificial intelligence, with other countries following. China is promoting the so-called “digital silk road”, that is, the construction of digital infrastructure in all the states located on this trade route. China offers digital infrastructure packages but also governance models exporting “digital authoritarianism”. China is seeking to infiltrate states and access data that it can leverage with artificial intelligence. The EU is caught between Chinese technological nationalism and American technological hegemony. The EU has mainly national technology providers rather than pan-European ones resulting in the fragmentation of the technology market. The EU therefore focuses on the regulatory power of technology. But the EU can legislate and create a more ethical framework for the operation of artificial intelligence. Dr. Liaropoulos said that cyberspace reflects the level of International Relations. Just as states compete on many issues in the international system, so do they in the global digital marketplace. The only difference is that we are now at the beginning of artificial intelligence, a revolutionary force that is not exclusively in the hands of states, as nuclear power was. In the new digital age we have a greater diffusion of power to private individuals and non-state actors.

The Cyber Security Analyst and Cyber Specialist Threat Intelligence Mr. Andreas Sfakianakis emphasized that there are three types of cyber security actors: 1) cyber criminals who carry out attacks that bring down company networks, 2) states who carry out cyber attacks (secret services, military) and finally 3) independent internet activists. The main types of cybercrimes are: deception, espionage, online disinformation, sabotage, gaining access to infrastructure for future sabotage as happened in Ukraine long before the Russian invasion. Russia, China, North Korea and Iran are conducting cyber attacks on the West. China has some strategic targets such as semiconductor companies. China has competition with Taiwan which is very strong in semiconductor production. Russia is mainly targeting Ukraine and NATO member states. Russia has developed expertise in cyberattacks impacting physical space, namely factories and power grids. Iran before the war in the Middle East aimed cyber attacks against Israel around 10% and now it has reached 50%. North Korea has developed cyber-attack capabilities in order to monetize through ransomware and thereby finance approximately 50% of its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The EU is trying to come up with rules that will govern the use of artificial intelligence.

Tackling cybercrime and especially protecting critical infrastructure from cyberattacks is a global priority. That is why transnational cooperation is required, as well as cooperation between the public sector and the private sector. It is also necessary to finance cyber security by the states in order to develop appropriate mechanisms to deal with cybercrime.

The Founder & Chairman of the Board of Directors KEDISA Dr. Andreas G. Banoutsos asked after the presentations of the speakers how much the EU wants and can emancipate itself in cybersecurity and AI from the US, whether Russia is investing in AI and to what extent, and whether a third-party cyber attack against a NATO member state can trigger the Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Mr. Athousakis replied that there should be an agreement between the EU member states but unfortunately each state has its own cyber security agenda, the United Kingdom in cooperation with the US and Australia share cyber security information and we do not know if the states EU members could work with the UK in this area. Dr. Kapsokoli pointed out that the EU is trying to become autonomous in cyberspace but for now the EU only issues cybersecurity norms. Russia has sought to strengthen artificial intelligence especially after the invasion of Ukraine. In the field of artificial intelligence production, Russia has built some digital language networks that are at a very good level. As of 2019, Russia has invested $2 billion in Russian AI companies, and in 2024 it will increase its investment in this critical sector. India, he added, is not yet a major international player in artificial intelligence but is exporting technological minds.

Dr. Liaropoulos said the EU wants to gain strategic autonomy in cyberspace but is still behind as the European market is fragmented due to national needs of member states. There is no single understanding in the EU. The EU is a “ soft power » legislating on artificial intelligence issues. The EU should have autonomous cyber defense and a respectable global market share. In the future we may have fragmentation of the global technology market and there the EU will find a place in the technology market. On the issue of NATO, he said that even if a NATO member was cyber-attacked, in accordance with Article 5, the remaining allied states could contribute diplomatically and politically and not necessarily by military means.

When asked by the public about how to make decisions in war conflicts with artificial intelligence, Dr. Liaropoulos said that by making decisions solely based on an algorithm, there is a risk of losing control and all that that entails. When asked about the non-existence of an international regulatory framework in cyberspace, Dr. Liaropoulos said that states prefer not to have a strict regulatory framework in cyberspace. Dr. Liaropoulos believes that cyber security is deliberately in a state of non-regulation so that there is freedom for actors to do some things necessary for their own cyber security. Mr. Sfakianakis said that states have tacitly accepted spying in physical space as well as in cyberspace without a clear regulatory framework.

In response to a question from the Vice President & Research Director of KEDISA Dr. Panagiotis Sfaelou for the multi-level action (business and politics) of the mega-entrepreneur Elon Musk in the USA, Dr. Kapsokoli emphasized that the fact that China banned the social networking platform X (formerly Twitter ) shows what can happen and how Elon Musk can influence global public opinion through his networks. Mr. Athousakis added that with Elon Musk we will probably see a frenzied global competition in Space with the construction of microsatellites that can also be used for espionage.

Photo by Arif Riyanto on Unsplash

new-economy.gr